For the first time in history fossil fuels will peak, even if countries fail to meet their climate pledges.
Russia’s ongoing war and conflicts are poised to accelerate the decline of fossil fuel production globally, leading to peak oil and gas within the next five years, according to the latest analysis from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The world’s top oil and gas producers, including the US and Saudi Arabia, are already struggling to maintain output as the pandemic has led to an oversupply of crude and low prices.
However, geopolitical tensions and military conflicts, particularly in Russia, will likely exacerbate the situation.
The IEA says it is now essential that the world shifts towards cleaner energy sources to avoid future energy insecurity and meet global climate goals.
Carbon Brief report:
The 524-page World Energy Outlook 2022 says the global energy crisis and Russia’s war have “turbo-charged” the shift away from fossil fuels.
The report says this will be a “pivotal moment” in history.
The findings pour cold water on “mistaken and misleading” ideas around the global energy crisis.
IEA executive director Dr Fatih Birol says the “clean energy transition” is the “best way out” of the crisis. This can be a “historic turning point” for climate action, he adds, rather than a setback.
Countries are moving to electrify heat and transport more quickly than they were last year, the IEA says. It adds that “clean energy…is the big growth story of this outlook”.
Global energy demand growth will “almost entirely” be met by renewables.
Moreover, global solar capacity will climb 18% higher by 2030 than expected last year – and wind 14%.
Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are now set to peak by 2025 at the latest, the outlook says.
As a result, the world would warm by 2.5C this century, slightly less than the 2.6C the IEA expected last year.
Countries have also boosted the ambition of their climate pledges.
These would now limit warming to 1.7C if met in full, rather than 2.1C stated last year.
However, it is “easier to make pledges than to implement them”, the IEA says. There is still a “long way to go” to align action with the 1.5C target.
The outlook also raises concerns over rising geopolitical tensions and millions of people losing access to energy due to fossil fuel price inflation. It says the shift away from the “fragile and unsustainable” energy system built on fossil fuels calls for new approaches to energy security.
World energy outlook
The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) is published every autumn. It is widely regarded as one of the most influential annual contributions to the climate and energy debate.
The IEA’s findings are a stark reminder of the urgent need to transition to cleaner energy sources.
As the world grapples with the twin challenges of climate change and energy insecurity, it is crucial that policymakers prioritise renewable energy and other low-carbon alternatives.
Failure to do so risks perpetuating the status quo of fossil fuel dependence and exacerbating global geopolitical tensions.
The time to act is now.
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